Alot has been made of how the Utes struggled to put away Utah State and San Jose State. Well, first of all, it's frustrating that Ute fans have such short and mediocre memories. The team that blew out Alabama did not play like the same team that squeaked by New Mexico. And Michigan, Oregon State, and TCU were lucky wins. But last year's team, like this year's, had the most important thing going for it - they knew how to pull out a win.
I'm getting fed up with people saying that Utah has looked more average against these WAC opponents. It's like they're not even seeing the same games I am. The biggest difference, the reason why the Utes suddenly look worse, is simply this: Potential Points.
It's a concept that occurred to me a few weeks ago. I figured the Utes had to have led the league in "Missed Field Goals Against" last year, seeing as how many times they lucked out. I never did the research to see how they stacked up against other teams, but I did catalog every missed opportunity that the Utes' opponents had over the course of the season. The results are enlightening.
Last year, the Utes won three games entirely due to opponents leaving points on the field. By that I mean, they were in scoring position and either missed a field goal or a PAT or something along those lines. Oregon State missed one field goal, one PAT, and two 2-pt conversions. That's a total of 8 potential points that the Beavers failed to convert. The Utes only won by 3 points. Likewise, TCU missed two short field goals, 6 potential points, and only lost by 3 again. And how about New Mexico? The Utes blocked one field goal, and ended up winning by 3 points. Potential Points were the difference.
One more example, but a more complicated scenario: Michigan. The Wolverines failed a 2 pt conversion that would have tied the game, but also blocked a Utah PAT (the only kick of any kind Sakoda had blocked last year), so the difference in Potential Points is only 1, and the Utes won by 2.
Out of all the other examples of points left on the field, none of them were significant to the final win margin. But interestingly, if you take into account all missed FGs, PATs, 2 pt conversions, and Turnover-on-Downs in the red zone, Utah opponents let a grand total of 40 Potential Points slip away.
The Utes: 16
A margin of 24 points? That's pretty good. Or pretty lucky. Either way, it means that the Utes were finding ways to win games that they probably shouldn't have.
Now, here's where we come to this year. As of this writing the Utes have played two games. All ready, they have failed to capitalize on 23 Potential Points! In two games! Two turnovers-on-downs at the goal line and three missed field goals have really added up quickly. And on the other side, only 3 points were left on the field when USU missed a Field Goal. So, their margin is at -20 heading in to week three. Is it any wonder they look worse than last year? If Asiata hadn't overthrown Cain in the end zone (yes, you read that right, the RB threw to the QB), and Vroman hadn't gone 0-for-3 on Field Goals, the Utah - San Jose State final score would have been 40-14. Not so bad, eh?
What does it all mean? Well, personally I just don't believe the Utes' luck will hold like it did last year. Like I said, they won a couple of games they shouldn't have. And that's ok. A respectable winning season, hopefully capped off with another bowl win to keep the streak alive, should be enough to keep the fan base happy and the recruits signing on. When will they stumble? I don't know. Hopefully not this week against Oregon. Since conference pride is the latest fad, it would hurt the Utes' reputation more to lose out of conference than in it. I feel confident - unfortunately - that the Utes are bound to drop one game, if not more, this season.
But the point I'm trying to make is that this is still a good team. Still our team that we know and love. So far they've continued the tradition of winning any way possible, even if it's ugly. That's pretty respectable. Don't be impatient, Ute fans. Don't have unattainable expectations. We still have a team to be proud of.
